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Methodology

How we price painting.

Every price on TheFatBook is built from a v3 Bill-of-Materials model. We multiply Craftsman National Estimator labor hours by BLS OEWS regional wages and a burden rate to get loaded labor cost. We add materials adjusted with FRED Producer Price Index data, city permit facts from our permits dataset where available, and NAHB-benchmarked contractor overhead. The result is cost-to-deliver. Compared against verified market pricing, the gap is the contractor margin and the savings opportunity.

Data sources: BLS, Craftsman, FRED
Reference URLs: BLS OEWS · FRED PPI · PermitCalculator.com
Markets: 5 metros + national average
Services tracked: 13
Headline service: Whole House Painting
Index version: 2026.Q2
Update cadence: source review before each published cost-index refresh; visible pages currently updated May 2026
Cost index author: David Olson, Founder of TheFatBook
Methodology reviewer: Leonard "Chuck" Thompson, LC Thompson Construction Co.
Permit data: from permitcalculator.com, our sister project covering verified building-department fees and contacts.

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Cost index built by David Olson, Founder of TheFatBook · Methodology reviewed by Leonard "Chuck" Thompson, LC Thompson Construction Co. · 2026.Q1
Worked Example

Whole House Painting, derived end-to-end.

The same 12 steps apply to every service in every metro. Numbers below use the national-average record for Whole House Painting; metro-specific numbers (wage, permit, PPI) replace the national values city-by-city.

STEP 1

Craftsman labor hours

Labor hours come from the Craftsman National Estimator, the industry standard cost-estimating reference. For Whole House Painting, the BOM specifies 111 labor hours for a typical 2500 sq ft project.

STEP 2

BLS wage and burden rate

Hourly wage rates come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (BLS OES) for the relevant trade and metro. National average for this trade: $31.98/hr. Burden rate (FICA, workers' comp, unemployment, insurance) adds 37.2% for a loaded wage of $43.87/hr.

STEP 3

Labor cost

labor = 111 hrs × $43.87/hr = $4,869
STEP 4

Materials, PPI-adjusted

Material costs come from the Craftsman BOM and are multiplied by the relevant FRED Producer Price Index series to inflation-adjust to the current quarter. Current PPI multiplier: 1.0386. For Whole House Painting: $2,250.

materials = craftsman_material_cost × ppi_multiplier = $2,250
STEP 6

Direct cost

direct = labor + materials + permit = $4,869 + $2,250 + $0 = $7,119
STEP 7

Contractor overhead

Overhead (general & administrative, marketing, supervision) is benchmarked against the NAHB Cost of Doing Business study. Materials are pass-through, so overhead applies only to labor + permit.

overhead = (labor + permit) × 0.20 = $974
STEP 8

Cost to deliver

What it actually costs a contractor to do the job, before profit.

cost_to_deliver = direct + overhead = $7,119 + $974 = $8,093
STEP 9

Verified floor

The lowest verified bid we observe in the market for this scope. Functions as a counter-offer anchor in negotiation. National floor for this service: $8,093.

STEP 10

Typical contractor bid

Market average from contractor pricing. National typical bid: $11,676 (range $10,536 to $12,672).

STEP 11

Contractor gross margin

The portion of the typical bid that exceeds cost-to-deliver. Higher margin = more room to negotiate.

margin = ($11,676 - $8,093) / $11,676 × 100 = 30.7%
STEP 12

Savings potential

savings = typical - floor = $11,676 - $8,093 = $3,583